Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Oliveira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1419

Elo1490

Alex OliveiravsJoe MerrittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · Saturday, June 27, 2015Hollywood, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Alex Oliveira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at -425 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Joe Merritt has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira

Red Corner

Joe Merritt

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1419

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Joe MerrittNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricJoe Merritt

2.99

Strikes / min

1.53

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

0.73

46%

Strike defense

66%

2.35

TDs / 15 min

0.00

63%

Takedown defense

68%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex OliveiraJoe Merritt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Joe Merritt(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -71.4|Blue +71.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetJoe Merritt

By target zone

28% acc · 64%

Head

53% acc · 70%

0% acc

Body

75% acc · 13%

67% acc · 36%

Leg

80% acc · 17%

By position

24% acc · 45%

Distance

22% acc · 17%

50% acc · 36%

Clinch

100% acc · 35%

50% acc · 18%

Ground

85% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Oliveira rounds

even

Joe Merritt rounds

Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control3:56

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2Joe Merritt edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:14

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 3Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns3

Control4:14

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 33

Sig Strikes

23 / 39

34.3%

Sig Str %

58.3%

33 / 60

Total Strikes

34 / 50

5 / 16

TDs

0 / 2

34.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

10:24

Ctrl Time

2:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Merritt	8 / 11	12 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Alex Oliveira	2 / 5	5 / 8	1 / 5	0
2	Joe Merritt	10 / 16	15 / 21	0 / 2	0
2	Alex Oliveira	3 / 14	5 / 18	1 / 2	1
3	Joe Merritt	5 / 12	7 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	Alex Oliveira	6 / 14	23 / 34	3 / 9	1

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21

Joe Merritt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights1