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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alex Oliveira won · U-DEC R3
Elo1419
Elo1359
James Moontasri

Alex OliveiravsJames MoontasriUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Saturday, July 23, 2016Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Alex Oliveira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • James Moontasri threatens submissions; Alex Oliveira has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • James Moontasri has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors James Moontasri (52.9%).
  • Alex Oliveira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
James Moontasri
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
1419
Elo
1359
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20
L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21
L
vs Niko Price · Oct 21
L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22
latest
James Moontasri
oldest →
L
vs Joe Ellenberger · Jun 14
W
SUBvs Cody Pfister · Feb 15
L
SUBvs Kevin Lee · Jul 15
W
KOvs Anton Zafir · Nov 15
L
vs Alex Morono · Dec 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricJames Moontasri
2.99
Strikes / min
2.39
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
3.86
46%
Strike defense
40%
2.35
TDs / 15 min
0.00
63%
Takedown defense
79%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.44Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1527 vs 1504Strikes19.8 vs 21.0Takedowns1.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.25Form0.1 vs 0.2
Alex OliveiraJames Moontasri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alex Oliveira(10 fights)James Moontasri(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +60.2|Blue -60.2
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -99.0|Blue +99.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetJames Moontasri

By target zone

28
62% acc · 48%
Head
6
35% acc · 50%
28
90% acc · 48%
Body
1
33% acc · 8%
2
100% acc · 3%
Leg
5
83% acc · 42%

By position

5
42% acc · 9%
Distance
3
21% acc · 25%
15
71% acc · 26%
Clinch
9
75% acc · 75%
38
84% acc · 66%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Alex Oliveira rounds
0
even
0
James Moontasri rounds
Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control2:44
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:10Control
Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control4:22
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 3Alex Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns1
Control4:15
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
58 / 78
Sig Strikes
12 / 26
70.3%
Sig Str %
44.3%
156 / 196
Total Strikes
30 / 48
2 / 8
TDs
0 / 1
27.7%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
11:21
Ctrl Time
1:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1James Moontasri6 / 1115 / 230 / 00
1Alex Oliveira11 / 1842 / 560 / 30
2James Moontasri3 / 710 / 150 / 10
2Alex Oliveira15 / 2440 / 571 / 20
3James Moontasri3 / 85 / 100 / 00
3Alex Oliveira32 / 3674 / 831 / 30

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights21

James Moontasri

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6