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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R2

Elo1419

Elo1497

Alex OliveiravsGunnar NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 8, 2018Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Gunnar Nelson won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:17

Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsGunnar Nelson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gunnar Nelson threatens submissions; Alex Oliveira has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
Alex Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira

Red Corner

Gunnar Nelson

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1419

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricGunnar Nelson

2.99

Strikes / min

1.77

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

46%

Strike defense

48%

2.35

TDs / 15 min

2.00

63%

Takedown defense

68%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap-1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex OliveiraGunnar Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -77.6|Blue +77.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -433.0|Blue +433.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetGunnar Nelson

By target zone

68% acc · 75%

Head

100% acc · 91%

100% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

75% acc · 8%

Distance

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

67% acc · 67%

Ground

100% acc · 82%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Oliveira rounds

even

Gunnar Nelson rounds

Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control1:44

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 2Gunnar Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:22

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:29Control

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 49

Sig Strikes

11 / 11

70.5%

Sig Str %

100%

52 / 69

Total Strikes

20 / 20

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

3:06

Ctrl Time

4:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gunnar Nelson	2 / 2	3 / 3	1 / 4	0
1	Alex Oliveira	30 / 40	39 / 53	0 / 0	0
2	Gunnar Nelson	9 / 9	17 / 17	1 / 1	1
2	Alex Oliveira	6 / 9	13 / 16	0 / 2	0

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16