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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alex Oliveira won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1419
Elo1371

Alex OliveiravsCarlo PedersoliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Saturday, September 22, 2018Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Alex Oliveira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:39

Model Prediction: Carlo Pedersoli wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlo Pedersoli at +400 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Carlo Pedersoli (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Carlo Pedersoli
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
1419
Elo
1371
38
Age
25
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20
L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21
L
vs Niko Price · Oct 21
L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22
latest
Carlo Pedersoli
oldest →
W
DECvs Bradley Scott · May 18
L
KOvs Dwight Grant · Feb 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricCarlo Pedersoli
2.99
Strikes / min
—
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
—
46%
Strike defense
—
2.35
TDs / 15 min
—
63%
Takedown defense
—
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1592 vs 1518Strikes27.8 vs 67.0Takedowns2.2 vs 3.0Sub Atts0.58 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs 1.0
Alex OliveiraCarlo Pedersoli

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Carlo Pedersoli(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +48.1|Blue -48.1
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +43.0|Blue -43.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights21

Carlo Pedersoli

No profile data.