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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Serghei Spivac won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1506

Aleksei OleinikvsSerghei SpivacUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · Saturday, June 19, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Serghei Spivac won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Serghei Spivac wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Serghei Spivac wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Serghei Spivac at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Serghei Spivac has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Oleinik

Red Corner

Serghei Spivac

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1495

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

vs Fabricio Werdum · May 20

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Serghei Spivac

oldest →

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25

vs Ante Delija · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei OleinikMetricSerghei Spivac

3.29

Strikes / min

3.57

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

4.23

44%

Strike defense

52%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

3.82

37%

Takedown defense

63%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksei OleinikSerghei Spivac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.2|Blue +11.2

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei OleinikTargetSerghei Spivac

By target zone

36% acc · 56%

Head

51% acc · 94%

81% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

47% acc · 88%

Distance

49% acc · 77%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

60% acc · 5%

Ground

75% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

even

Serghei Spivac rounds

Round 1Aleksei Oleinik edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control1:37

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Serghei Spivac edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:51

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:54Control

Round 3Serghei Spivac edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:03

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 121

Sig Strikes

71 / 136

49%

Sig Str %

53%

98 / 162

Total Strikes

112 / 181

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:31

Ctrl Time

4:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Serghei Spivac	23 / 53	24 / 54	0 / 0	0
1	Aleksei Oleinik	25 / 59	27 / 61	1 / 2	0
2	Serghei Spivac	20 / 32	37 / 51	0 / 0	0
2	Aleksei Oleinik	10 / 22	16 / 29	0 / 0	1
3	Serghei Spivac	28 / 51	51 / 76	0 / 0	0
3	Aleksei Oleinik	24 / 40	55 / 72	0 / 0	0

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15