Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Alex Oliveira has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Condit
oldest →L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18 Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos ConditMetricAlex Oliveira
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Carlos ConditAlex Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Condit(10 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +74.6|Blue -74.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Carlos ConditTargetAlex Oliveira
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control2:01
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:34Control
Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control0:51
8Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:10Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
