Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Marcin TyburaL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Mar 24W
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24L
KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25L
vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26 Serghei Spivac
oldest →W
SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 23L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23L
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25L
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Marcin TyburaMetricSerghei Spivac
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.30evenly matched on net striking-0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Marcin TyburaSerghei Spivac
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -11.0|Blue +11.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -196.0|Blue +196.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Marcin TyburaTargetSerghei Spivac
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Serghei Spivac edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:43
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:34Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
