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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Johny Hendricks won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1362

Elo1353

Johny HendricksvsTJ WaldburgerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · Saturday, March 26, 2011Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Johny Hendricks won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:35

Style matchupJohny Hendricks: WrestlervsTJ Waldburger: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: TJ Waldburger wins(78.5%)

Actual result: Johny Hendricks wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Waldburger at +265 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Johny Hendricks has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Johny Hendricks has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).
TJ Waldburger has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Johny Hendricks

Red Corner

TJ Waldburger

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1362

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johny HendricksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16

vs Neil Magny · Dec 16

vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17

KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17

latest

TJ WaldburgerL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12

vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12

SUBvs Nick Catone · Dec 12

KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13

KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johny HendricksMetricTJ Waldburger

3.49

Strikes / min

2.02

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.39

53%

Strike defense

40%

3.83

TDs / 15 min

3.03

63%

Takedown defense

40%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

4.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johny HendricksTJ Waldburger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johny Hendricks(10 fights)TJ Waldburger(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.6|Blue -9.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -80.0|Blue +80.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johny HendricksTargetTJ Waldburger

By target zone

75% acc · 43%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 57%

Body

100% acc · 67%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

67% acc · 29%

Distance

25% acc · 67%

100% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johny Hendricks rounds

even

TJ Waldburger rounds

Round 1Johny Hendricks edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 8

Sig Strikes

3 / 9

87%

Sig Str %

33%

9 / 10

Total Strikes

3 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	TJ Waldburger	3 / 9	3 / 9	0 / 1	0
1	Johny Hendricks	7 / 8	9 / 10	0 / 0	0

Johny Hendricks

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights19

TJ Waldburger

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8