Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Paul Kelly is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Donald Cerrone has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22 Paul Kelly
oldest →W
SUBvs Matt Veach · Apr 10L
vs Jacob Volkmann · Aug 10W
KOvs TJ O'Brien · Nov 10 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricPaul Kelly
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Donald CerronePaul Kelly
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Paul Kelly(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -61.5|Blue +61.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +47.6|Blue -47.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +49.5|Blue -49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Donald CerroneTargetPaul Kelly
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns2
Control1:56
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control1:35
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
