Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jesus Aguilar has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rafael Estevam has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Rafael Estevam has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Estevam
oldest →W
vs Charles Johnson · Nov 23W
vs Felipe Bunes · Aug 25L
KOvs Ethyn Ewing · Apr 26 Jesus Aguilar
oldest →W
KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24W
SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael EstevamMetricJesus Aguilar
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.50Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafael EstevamJesus Aguilar
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Estevam(4 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +273.0|Blue -273.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafael EstevamTargetJesus Aguilar
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rafael Estevam edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns5
Control3:54
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
Round 2Rafael Estevam edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns5
Control4:30
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jesus Aguilar edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control0:58
28Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:44Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
