Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matheus Nicolau has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Matheus Nicolau has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matheus Nicolau has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22 Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricMatheus Nicolau
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Louis SmolkaMatheus Nicolau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -66.6|Blue +66.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -281.0|Blue +281.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Louis SmolkaTargetMatheus Nicolau
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matheus Nicolau edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:59Control
3Knockdowns
Round 2Matheus Nicolau edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Matheus Nicolau edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:01
21Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
