Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matheus Nicolau has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Moraga
oldest →L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18 Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John MoragaMetricMatheus Nicolau
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
John MoragaMatheus Nicolau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Moraga(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
John MoragaTargetMatheus Nicolau
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Matheus Nicolau edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Matheus Nicolau edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
