Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Perez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matheus Nicolau has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Matheus Nicolau has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matheus NicolauL2 streak
oldest →W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24 Alex Perez
oldest →L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 24L
KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24L
SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25W
KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matheus NicolauMetricAlex Perez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.33evenly matched on net striking+1.21
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matheus NicolauAlex Perez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)Alex Perez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -6.9|Blue +6.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +322.0|Blue -322.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matheus NicolauTargetAlex Perez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Alex Perez edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Alex Perez edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
