Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris Duncan
oldest →W
SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24W
SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25W
vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25W
SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Apr 26 Yanal Ashmouz
oldest →W
KOvs Sam Patterson · Mar 23L
vs Quillan Salkilld · Jun 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris DuncanMetricYanal Ashmouz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.26Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-1.90
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chris DuncanYanal Ashmouz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Duncan(8 fights)Yanal Ashmouz(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +39.4|Blue -39.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chris DuncanTargetYanal Ashmouz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chris Duncan edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control0:06
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Chris Duncan edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:02
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Chris Duncan edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns1
Control0:40
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
