Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Rebecki (53.5%).
- Chris Duncan has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mateusz RebeckiL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 23L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24W
vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25L
SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 26 Chris Duncan
oldest →L
SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24W
SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24W
SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25W
SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mateusz RebeckiMetricChris Duncan
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mateusz RebeckiChris Duncan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mateusz Rebecki(8 fights)Chris Duncan(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -61.6|Blue +61.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +147.0|Blue -147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mateusz RebeckiTargetChris Duncan
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mateusz Rebecki edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control1:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Mateusz Rebecki edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns1
Control0:19
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns1
Control0:04
48Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:27Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
