Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Kelly is a KO finisher (50% of wins). TJ O'Brien has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Paul Kelly threatens submissions; TJ O'Brien has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Paul Kelly has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- TJ O'Brien has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul KellyL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Matt Veach · Apr 10L
vs Jacob Volkmann · Aug 10L
SUBvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 11 TJ O'Brien
oldest →L
SUBvs Cole Miller · Aug 11 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul KellyMetricTJ O'Brien
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.61Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap-1.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paul KellyTJ O'Brien
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Kelly(4 fights)TJ O'Brien(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +139.1|Blue -139.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -47.6|Blue +47.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paul KellyTargetTJ O'Brien
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Paul Kelly edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:52
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Paul Kelly edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control2:02
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:27Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
