Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Marina Rodriguez has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mackenzie DernW3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23L
vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24W
vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24W
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25W
vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25 Marina RodriguezL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23W
KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23L
vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24L
KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mackenzie DernMetricMarina Rodriguez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.46Δ 1.96 — meaningful gap+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mackenzie DernMarina Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +37.7|Blue -37.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mackenzie DernTargetMarina Rodriguez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Marina Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control1:18
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 2Mackenzie Dern edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control4:21
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Round 3Marina Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:22
45Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Marina Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control0:39
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Marina Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:41
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
