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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matheus Nicolau won · S-DEC

Elo1558

Elo1491

Manel KapevsMatheus NicolauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Saturday, March 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matheus Nicolau won

S-DEC

Style matchupManel Kape: Pressure fightervsMatheus Nicolau: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matheus Nicolau at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manel Kape enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Manel Kape is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Matheus Nicolau has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Manel Kape (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Manel Kape

Red Corner

Matheus Nicolau

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1558

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manel KapeW4 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24

KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25

KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jun 26

latest

Matheus NicolauL3 streak

oldest →

vs David Dvorak · Mar 22

KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22

KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23

KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24

vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manel KapeMetricMatheus Nicolau

5.04

Strikes / min

3.31

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

57%

Strike defense

65%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

1.22

81%

Takedown defense

90%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manel KapeMatheus Nicolau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manel Kape(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +66.2|Blue -66.2

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -924.0|Blue +924.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manel KapeTargetMatheus Nicolau

By target zone

31% acc · 61%

Head

41% acc · 49%

63% acc · 16%

Body

81% acc · 38%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

70% acc · 13%

By position

40% acc · 95%

Distance

52% acc · 91%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

67% acc · 3%

Ground

75% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manel Kape rounds

even

Matheus Nicolau rounds

Round 1Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:02

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:24Control

Round 2Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:04

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:32

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 150

Sig Strikes

55 / 102

34.3%

Sig Str %

53.3%

73 / 165

Total Strikes

76 / 132

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 9

—

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

2:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matheus Nicolau	7 / 13	27 / 39	2 / 3	1
1	Manel Kape	2 / 10	10 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Matheus Nicolau	21 / 38	21 / 38	0 / 3	0
2	Manel Kape	28 / 69	28 / 69	0 / 0	0
3	Matheus Nicolau	27 / 51	28 / 55	0 / 3	0
3	Manel Kape	31 / 71	35 / 75	0 / 0	0

Manel Kape

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Matheus Nicolau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights11