Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sage Northcutt enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Sage Northcutt has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sage NorthcuttW3 streak
oldest →W
vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16L
SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16W
vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17W
vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18 Bryan BarberenaL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sage NorthcuttMetricBryan Barberena
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.62evenly matched on net striking+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sage NorthcuttBryan Barberena
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -229.0|Blue +229.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sage NorthcuttTargetBryan Barberena
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sage Northcutt edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control1:24
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:38Control
Round 2Bryan Barberena edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:37Control
