Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Max Griffin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22 Max GriffinL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Michael Morales · Jul 23W
vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24L
vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25L
DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex OliveiraMetricMax Griffin
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alex OliveiraMax Griffin
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Max Griffin(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -51.4|Blue +51.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alex OliveiraTargetMax Griffin
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Max Griffin edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:12
7Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:38Control
Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control1:34
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Round 3Alex Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control1:45
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:51Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
