Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matheus Nicolau has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matheus Nicolau has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Matt Schnell has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24 Matt SchnellL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24L
SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25L
KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matheus NicolauMetricMatt Schnell
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matheus NicolauMatt Schnell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +26.6|Blue -26.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matheus NicolauTargetMatt Schnell
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matheus Nicolau edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:11
Knockdowns1
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Matheus Nicolau edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control0:36
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
