Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matheus Nicolau has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brandon Royval
oldest →W
vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24W
vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24L
KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25W
SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26 Matheus NicolauL2 streak
oldest →W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brandon RoyvalMetricMatheus Nicolau
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.29evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brandon RoyvalMatheus Nicolau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brandon Royval(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +19.1|Blue -19.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +210.0|Blue -210.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brandon RoyvalTargetMatheus Nicolau
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Brandon Royval edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:07
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
