Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Matheus Nicolau has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matheus Nicolau has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matheus NicolauL2 streak
oldest →W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24 Asu AlmabayevW3 streak
oldest →W
vs Jose Johnson · Jun 24L
KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25W
SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25W
SUBvs Charles Johnson · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matheus NicolauMetricAsu Almabayev
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matheus NicolauAsu Almabayev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)Asu Almabayev(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -65.1|Blue +65.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matheus NicolauTargetAsu Almabayev
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Asu Almabayev edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:08Control
Round 3Asu Almabayev edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
4:09Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
