Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Joe Merritt has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22 Joe MerrittNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex OliveiraMetricJoe Merritt
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alex OliveiraJoe Merritt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Joe Merritt(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -71.4|Blue +71.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alex OliveiraTargetJoe Merritt
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control3:56
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:50Control
Round 2Joe Merritt edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control2:14
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:29Control
Round 3Alex Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns3
Control4:14
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
