Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- TJ Waldburger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- TJ Waldburger threatens submissions; Nick Catone has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Nick Catone has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Nick Catone has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nick Catone (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
TJ WaldburgerL3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Mike Stumpf · Sep 11W
SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12L
vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12L
KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13 Nick Catone
oldest →W
DECvs Costas Philippou · Mar 11L
KOvs Chris Camozzi · Jun 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
TJ WaldburgerMetricNick Catone
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.21
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
TJ WaldburgerNick Catone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
TJ Waldburger(8 fights)Nick Catone(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -137.4|Blue +137.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
TJ WaldburgerTargetNick Catone
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Nick Catone edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control1:14
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:38Control
Round 2TJ Waldburger edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:41Control
0Knockdowns
