How to Read the Predictions
We show the de-vigged live-market probability for every fight. The model is a research signal, not a betting edge.
Market-anchored predictions
The headline probability on every fight is the two-sided market line with the bookmaker's margin (the “vig”) removed. It is the market's own estimate, stated honestly — not a claim that we can beat it.
When a fight has no two-sided line yet, we show no probability rather than fabricate one. Nothing on this site is betting advice.
Where the model fits
Our machine-learning model produces its own estimate for each fight. Under a pre-committed, walk-forward test it did not beat the market, so we do not present it as a betting edge, a bet signal, or a source of expected profit.
The model number is shown alongside the market probability and clearly labelled as a research signal. It is useful for understanding a matchup and for our own error analysis — but it is not a recommendation to place any wager.
No hindsight, no rewrites
Every prediction is logged before the fight happens, and we publish the misses alongside the hits. The full record — wins and losses — is on our track-record page.
See this week's predictions
Market-anchored probabilities for every fight on every upcoming card.