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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nathan Fletcher won · SUB R2

Elo1492

Elo1483

Zygimantas RamaskavsNathan FletcherUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Saturday, September 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nathan Fletcher won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:14

Model Prediction: Nathan Fletcher wins(77.3%)

Actual result: Nathan Fletcher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nathan Fletcher at -142 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nathan Fletcher has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nathan Fletcher has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Zygimantas Ramaska

Red Corner

Nathan Fletcher

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-142

(59%)

1492

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zygimantas RamaskaNo prior UFC fights on record.

Nathan FletcherL2 streak

oldest →

vs Caolan Loughran · Mar 25

KOvs Rinya Nakamura · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zygimantas RamaskaMetricNathan Fletcher

0.96

Strikes / min

3.41

2.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

30%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.37

33%

Takedown defense

50%

2.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.29Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zygimantas RamaskaNathan Fletcher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zygimantas Ramaska(1 fights)Nathan Fletcher(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.8|Blue -8.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zygimantas RamaskaTargetNathan Fletcher

By target zone

63% acc · 83%

Head

72% acc · 93%

50% acc · 17%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

40% acc · 33%

Distance

86% acc · 43%

80% acc · 67%

Clinch

Ground

62% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zygimantas Ramaska rounds

even

Nathan Fletcher rounds

Round 1Nathan Fletcher edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:45

13Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:28Control

Round 2Nathan Fletcher edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:06

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 10

Sig Strikes

14 / 20

37.5%

Sig Str %

84%

12 / 16

Total Strikes

40 / 47

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 6

—

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:51

Ctrl Time

3:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nathan Fletcher	13 / 19	34 / 41	3 / 4	0
1	Zygimantas Ramaska	6 / 8	10 / 12	0 / 0	1
2	Nathan Fletcher	1 / 1	6 / 6	1 / 2	1
2	Zygimantas Ramaska	0 / 2	2 / 4	0 / 0	0

Zygimantas Ramaska

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights1

Nathan Fletcher

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3