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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Zubaira Tukhugov won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1496
Elo1354

Zubaira TukhugovvsErnest ChavezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Zubaira Tukhugov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:21

Model Prediction: Ernest Chavez wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Zubaira Tukhugov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ernest Chavez at +240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Zubaira Tukhugov has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Zubaira Tukhugov
Red Corner
VS
Ernest Chavez
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
1496
Elo
1354
35
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zubaira Tukhugov
oldest →
L
vs Renato Moicano · May 16
W
KOvs Kevin Aguilar · Feb 20
L
vs Hakeem Dawodu · Sep 20
W
vs Ricardo Ramos · Oct 21
L
vs Elves Brener · Feb 23
latest
Ernest Chavez
oldest →
W
vs Yosdenis Cedeno · Feb 14
L
SUBvs Elias Silverio · May 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zubaira TukhugovMetricErnest Chavez
3.17
Strikes / min
2.79
3.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.89
63%
Strike defense
59%
2.13
TDs / 15 min
0.89
100%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.10Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-1.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1501Strikes35.0 vs 41.0Takedowns3.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs -0.1
Zubaira TukhugovErnest Chavez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Zubaira Tukhugov(8 fights)Ernest Chavez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +142.6|Blue -142.6
Recent Form
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +105.0|Blue -105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zubaira TukhugovTargetErnest Chavez

By target zone

34
57% acc · 85%
Head
9
38% acc · 75%
5
83% acc · 13%
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 3%
Leg
3
60% acc · 25%

By position

27
52% acc · 68%
Distance
12
40% acc · 100%
8
89% acc · 20%
Clinch
0
5
83% acc · 13%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Zubaira Tukhugov rounds
0
even
0
Ernest Chavez rounds
Round 1Zubaira Tukhugov edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control0:08
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
40 / 67
Sig Strikes
12 / 30
59%
Sig Str %
40%
43 / 70
Total Strikes
12 / 30
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:08
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ernest Chavez12 / 3012 / 300 / 00
1Zubaira Tukhugov40 / 6743 / 700 / 00

Zubaira Tukhugov

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights8

Ernest Chavez

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3