Lightweight

3 Rounds

Elves Brener won · S-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1487

Zubaira TukhugovvsElves BrenerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Saturday, February 11, 2023Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Elves Brener won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupZubaira Tukhugov: WrestlervsElves Brener: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Elves Brener wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Elves Brener wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Elves Brener enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Zubaira Tukhugov has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Zubaira Tukhugov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Elves Brener has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Zubaira Tukhugov

Red Corner

Elves Brener

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1496

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zubaira Tukhugov

oldest →

vs Phillipe Nover · Dec 15

vs Renato Moicano · May 16

KOvs Kevin Aguilar · Feb 20

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Sep 20

vs Ricardo Ramos · Oct 21

latest

Elves BrenerL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Guram Kutateladze · Jul 23

KOvs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Nov 23

vs Myktybek Orolbai · May 24

KOvs Joel Alvarez · Aug 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zubaira TukhugovMetricElves Brener

3.17

Strikes / min

4.76

3.07

Strikes absorbed / min

5.86

63%

Strike defense

50%

2.13

TDs / 15 min

0.99

100%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-1.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zubaira TukhugovElves Brener

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zubaira Tukhugov(8 fights)Elves Brener(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.9|Blue -8.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zubaira TukhugovTargetElves Brener

By target zone

40% acc · 91%

Head

30% acc · 43%

57% acc · 6%

Body

66% acc · 33%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

76% acc · 23%

By position

41% acc · 97%

Distance

43% acc · 96%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

75% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zubaira Tukhugov rounds

even

Elves Brener rounds

Round 1Elves Brener edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Zubaira Tukhugov edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control2:11

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 169

Sig Strikes

69 / 157

40%

Sig Str %

45.3%

73 / 172

Total Strikes

82 / 170

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:11

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Elves Brener	24 / 67	24 / 67	0 / 1
1	Zubaira Tukhugov	17 / 43	17 / 43	0 / 0
2	Elves Brener	23 / 52	23 / 52	0 / 0
2	Zubaira Tukhugov	36 / 78	36 / 78	0 / 0
3	Elves Brener	22 / 38	35 / 51	0 / 2
3	Zubaira Tukhugov	17 / 48	20 / 51	0 / 4

Zubaira Tukhugov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8

Elves Brener

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6