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Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Zhang Weili won · U-DEC R5
Elo1509
Zhang Weili
Elo1500

Zhang WeilivsYan XiaonanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Saturday, April 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Zhang Weili won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupZhang Weili: Well-roundedvsYan Xiaonan: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Zhang Weili wins(71.7%)

Actual result: Zhang Weili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Weili at -455 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Weili (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Zhang Weili
Red Corner
VS
Yan Xiaonan
Blue Corner
-455
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+350
(22%)
1509
Elo
1500
36
Age
37
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'5"
160.02 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhang Weili
oldest →
W
KOvs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Jun 22
W
SUBvs Carla Esparza · Nov 22
W
vs Amanda Lemos · Aug 23
W
vs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 25
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Nov 25
latest
Yan Xiaonan
oldest →
L
vs Marina Rodriguez · Mar 22
W
vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 22
W
KOvs Jessica Andrade · May 23
W
vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 24
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhang WeiliMetricYan Xiaonan
4.66
Strikes / min
4.69
2.63
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
53%
Strike defense
60%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
0.84
63%
Takedown defense
64%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.03evenly matched on net striking+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1552 vs 1585Strikes5.7 vs 5.0Takedowns2.5 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form0.8 vs 0.6
Zhang WeiliYan Xiaonan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Zhang Weili(9 fights)Yan Xiaonan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +9.1|Blue -9.1
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhang WeiliTargetYan Xiaonan

By target zone

84
71% acc · 79%
Head
21
35% acc · 49%
13
68% acc · 12%
Body
4
67% acc · 9%
9
47% acc · 8%
Leg
18
95% acc · 42%

By position

34
44% acc · 32%
Distance
24
38% acc · 56%
4
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 7%
68
91% acc · 64%
Ground
16
94% acc · 37%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Zhang Weili rounds
0
even
1
Yan Xiaonan rounds
Round 1Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control1:04
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 2Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes54
Takedowns1
Control3:51
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 3Yan Xiaonan edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:17
Knockdowns0
26Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:42Control
1Knockdowns
Round 4Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns2
Control3:42
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 5Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns2
Control3:50
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
106 / 157
Sig Strikes
43 / 85
58.4%
Sig Str %
43.2%
256 / 327
Total Strikes
73 / 116
6 / 9
TDs
3 / 3
80%
TD %
100%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
12:44
Ctrl Time
2:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yan Xiaonan7 / 237 / 231 / 10
1Zhang Weili17 / 3020 / 331 / 11
2Yan Xiaonan4 / 137 / 160 / 00
2Zhang Weili54 / 5966 / 711 / 11
3Yan Xiaonan26 / 3433 / 412 / 20
3Zhang Weili12 / 2539 / 560 / 30
4Zhang Weili19 / 3359 / 862 / 20
4Yan Xiaonan4 / 1010 / 160 / 00
5Yan Xiaonan2 / 516 / 200 / 00
5Zhang Weili4 / 1072 / 812 / 20

Zhang Weili

StanceSwitch
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights9

Yan Xiaonan

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights13