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Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Zhang Weili won · U-DEC R5
Elo1509
Zhang Weili
Elo1527
Tatiana Suarez

Zhang WeilivsTatiana SuarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Saturday, February 8, 2025Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Zhang Weili won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupZhang Weili: Well-roundedvsTatiana Suarez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Zhang Weili wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Zhang Weili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Weili at +124 American odds

+$124 profit

$224 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tatiana Suarez enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Weili (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Zhang Weili
Red Corner
VS
Tatiana Suarez
Blue Corner
+124
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-146
(59%)
1509
Elo
1527
36
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'4"
Height
5'5"
160.02 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhang Weili
oldest →
W
KOvs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Jun 22
W
SUBvs Carla Esparza · Nov 22
W
vs Amanda Lemos · Aug 23
W
vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 24
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Nov 25
latest
Tatiana SuarezW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Nina Ansaroff · Jun 19
W
SUBvs Montana De La Rosa · Feb 23
W
SUBvs Jessica Andrade · Aug 23
W
vs Amanda Lemos · Sep 25
W
SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhang WeiliMetricTatiana Suarez
4.66
Strikes / min
2.86
2.63
Strikes absorbed / min
1.63
53%
Strike defense
44%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
4.52
63%
Takedown defense
57%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.03evenly matched on net striking+1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1569 vs 1606Strikes4.7 vs 3.0Takedowns2.0 vs 4.4Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.60Form1.0 vs 1.0
Zhang WeiliTatiana Suarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Zhang Weili(9 fights)Tatiana Suarez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -18.7|Blue +18.7
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -252.0|Blue +252.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhang WeiliTargetTatiana Suarez

By target zone

32
57% acc · 60%
Head
1
6% acc · 8%
16
76% acc · 30%
Body
2
33% acc · 17%
5
50% acc · 9%
Leg
9
64% acc · 75%

By position

29
47% acc · 55%
Distance
10
30% acc · 83%
11
100% acc · 21%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 17%
13
93% acc · 25%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Zhang Weili rounds
0
even
1
Tatiana Suarez rounds
Round 1Tatiana Suarez edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control1:09
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:08Control
Round 2Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control2:19
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:27Control
Round 3Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:06
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:44Control
Round 4Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control4:27
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control2:53
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:37Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
53 / 87
Sig Strikes
12 / 36
67.4%
Sig Str %
22.8%
232 / 299
Total Strikes
63 / 95
1 / 3
TDs
1 / 15
50%
TD %
25%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
10:54
Ctrl Time
5:56

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Zhang Weili1 / 231 / 370 / 00
1Tatiana Suarez0 / 223 / 261 / 10
2Tatiana Suarez0 / 23 / 60 / 40
2Zhang Weili10 / 1752 / 690 / 00
3Tatiana Suarez8 / 219 / 220 / 50
3Zhang Weili19 / 4233 / 580 / 00
4Tatiana Suarez3 / 521 / 270 / 00
4Zhang Weili7 / 753 / 601 / 11
5Zhang Weili16 / 1963 / 750 / 20
5Tatiana Suarez1 / 67 / 140 / 50

Zhang Weili

StanceSwitch
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights9

Tatiana Suarez

StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights9