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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Rose Namajunas won · KO/TKO

Elo1509

Elo1499

Zhang WeilivsRose NamajunasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Saturday, April 24, 2021Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Rose Namajunas won

KO/TKO

Style matchupZhang Weili: Well-roundedvsRose Namajunas: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Zhang Weili wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Rose Namajunas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Weili at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rose Namajunas has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Weili (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Zhang Weili

Red Corner

Rose Namajunas

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1509

Elo

1499

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhang Weili

oldest →

SUBvs Carla Esparza · Nov 22

vs Amanda Lemos · Aug 23

vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 24

vs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 25

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Nov 25

latest

Rose Namajunas

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24

vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25

vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhang WeiliMetricRose Namajunas

4.66

Strikes / min

3.50

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

53%

Strike defense

63%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

1.47

63%

Takedown defense

62%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.03Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zhang WeiliRose Namajunas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zhang Weili(9 fights)Rose Namajunas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.7|Blue -9.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +315.0|Blue -315.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhang WeiliTargetRose Namajunas

By target zone

25% acc · 14%

Head

50% acc · 100%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 86%

Leg

By position

64% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 40%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zhang Weili rounds

even

Rose Namajunas rounds

Round 1Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 11

Sig Strikes

5 / 10

63%

Sig Str %

50%

7 / 11

Total Strikes

5 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rose Namajunas	5 / 10	5 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Zhang Weili	7 / 11	7 / 11	0 / 0	0

Zhang Weili

StanceSwitch

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights9

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights19