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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Zhang Weili won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1509

Elo1427

Zhang WeilivsJoanna JedrzejczykUFC Prediction Result

UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Saturday, June 11, 2022Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Zhang Weili won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:28

Style matchupZhang Weili: Well-roundedvsJoanna Jedrzejczyk: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Zhang Weili wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Zhang Weili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Weili at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Weili (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Zhang Weili

Red Corner

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1509

Elo

1427

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhang Weili

oldest →

SUBvs Carla Esparza · Nov 22

vs Amanda Lemos · Aug 23

vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 24

vs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 25

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Nov 25

latest

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

oldest →

vs Rose Namajunas · Apr 18

vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19

vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhang WeiliMetricJoanna Jedrzejczyk

4.66

Strikes / min

6.28

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

53%

Strike defense

62%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

0.27

63%

Takedown defense

80%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.03evenly matched on net striking+3.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zhang WeiliJoanna Jedrzejczyk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zhang Weili(9 fights)Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +81.2|Blue -81.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -4.0|Blue +4.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -609.0|Blue +609.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhang WeiliTargetJoanna Jedrzejczyk

By target zone

65% acc · 75%

Head

36% acc · 47%

80% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 21%

71% acc · 7%

Leg

70% acc · 33%

By position

49% acc · 42%

Distance

48% acc · 91%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

92% acc · 51%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zhang Weili rounds

even

Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds

Round 1Zhang Weili edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns3

Control2:39

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Zhang Weili edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 102

Sig Strikes

43 / 85

66%

Sig Str %

50.5%

94 / 130

Total Strikes

44 / 86

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

30%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	22 / 39	23 / 40	0 / 0
1	Zhang Weili	47 / 66	72 / 94	3 / 5
2	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	21 / 46	21 / 46	0 / 0
2	Zhang Weili	22 / 36	22 / 36	0 / 1

Zhang Weili

StanceSwitch

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights9

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15