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Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Zhang Weili won · U-DEC R5
Elo1509
Zhang Weili
Elo1488
Amanda Lemos editorial illustration

Zhang WeilivsAmanda LemosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Zhang Weili won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupZhang Weili: Well-roundedvsAmanda Lemos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Zhang Weili wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Zhang Weili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Weili at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Weili (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Zhang Weili
Red Corner
VS
Amanda Lemos
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1509
Elo
1488
36
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'4"
Height
5'4"
160.02 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhang Weili
oldest →
W
KOvs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Jun 22
W
SUBvs Carla Esparza · Nov 22
W
vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 24
W
vs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 25
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Nov 25
latest
Amanda LemosL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Mackenzie Dern · Feb 24
L
SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Jul 24
W
vs Iasmin Lucindo · Mar 25
L
vs Tatiana Suarez · Sep 25
L
vs Gillian Robertson · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhang WeiliMetricAmanda Lemos
4.66
Strikes / min
2.75
2.63
Strikes absorbed / min
3.01
53%
Strike defense
45%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
1.02
63%
Takedown defense
63%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.03Δ 2.29 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1579Strikes5.7 vs 3.2Takedowns2.5 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.80Form0.6 vs 0.6
Zhang WeiliAmanda Lemos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Zhang Weili(9 fights)Amanda Lemos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +20.4|Blue -20.4
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhang WeiliTargetAmanda Lemos

By target zone

106
71% acc · 65%
Head
19
33% acc · 79%
37
88% acc · 23%
Body
3
75% acc · 13%
20
80% acc · 12%
Leg
2
100% acc · 8%

By position

50
65% acc · 31%
Distance
23
38% acc · 96%
17
94% acc · 10%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 4%
96
79% acc · 59%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Zhang Weili rounds
0
even
0
Amanda Lemos rounds
Round 1Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns1
Control4:33
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns2
Control3:47
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control2:58
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 4Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control0:44
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 5Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes55
Takedowns1
Control4:05
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
163 / 217
Sig Strikes
24 / 63
74%
Sig Str %
49.8%
296 / 358
Total Strikes
29 / 68
6 / 7
TDs
0 / 0
90%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
16:07
Ctrl Time
0:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Amanda Lemos1 / 12 / 20 / 01
1Zhang Weili44 / 5574 / 901 / 10
2Amanda Lemos4 / 105 / 110 / 00
2Zhang Weili16 / 2049 / 542 / 20
3Amanda Lemos5 / 128 / 150 / 00
3Zhang Weili20 / 2931 / 401 / 20
4Zhang Weili28 / 4528 / 451 / 10
4Amanda Lemos13 / 3713 / 370 / 01
5Amanda Lemos1 / 31 / 30 / 00
5Zhang Weili55 / 68114 / 1291 / 10

Zhang Weili

StanceSwitch
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights9

Amanda Lemos

StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights15