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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Zhang Mingyang won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1489

Elo1440

Zhang MingyangvsBrendson RibeiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Saturday, February 17, 2024Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Zhang Mingyang won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:41

Model Prediction: Zhang Mingyang wins(64.0%)

Actual result: Zhang Mingyang wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Mingyang at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendson Ribeiro enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Zhang Mingyang is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Brendson Ribeiro has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Brendson Ribeiro has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Zhang Mingyang has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Brendson Ribeiro has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Zhang Mingyang

Red Corner

Brendson Ribeiro

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1489

Elo

1440

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhang MingyangL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ozzy Diaz · Nov 24

KOvs Anthony Smith · Apr 25

KOvs Johnny Walker · Aug 25

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 26

latest

Brendson RibeiroL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Diyar Nurgozhay · Mar 25

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Jun 25

KOvs Oumar Sy · Sep 25

SUBvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Apr 26

DECvs Magomed Tuchalov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhang MingyangMetricBrendson Ribeiro

7.71

Strikes / min

3.04

5.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

43%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.85

75%

Takedown defense

21%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.38Δ 3.25 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zhang MingyangBrendson Ribeiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zhang Mingyang(5 fights)Brendson Ribeiro(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.9|Blue -48.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhang MingyangTargetBrendson Ribeiro

By target zone

68% acc · 76%

Head

45% acc · 100%

40% acc · 12%

Body

50% acc · 12%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 82%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zhang Mingyang rounds

even

Brendson Ribeiro rounds

Round 1Zhang Mingyang edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 28

Sig Strikes

14 / 31

60%

Sig Str %

45%

17 / 28

Total Strikes

14 / 31

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendson Ribeiro	14 / 31	14 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Zhang Mingyang	17 / 28	17 / 28	0 / 0	0

Zhang Mingyang

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5

Brendson Ribeiro

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights8