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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kajan Johnson won · Decision R3

Elo1355

Elo1368

Zhang LipengvsKajan JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · Saturday, May 16, 2015Manila, Philippines

Official fight result

Kajan Johnson won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kajan Johnson wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Kajan Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kajan Johnson at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kajan Johnson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Lipeng (53.5%).
Kajan Johnson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Zhang Lipeng

Red Corner

Kajan Johnson

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1355

Elo

1368

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhang Lipeng

oldest →

DECvs Sai Wang · Mar 14

DECvs Brendan O'Reilly · Aug 14

DECvs Chris Wade · Jan 15

latest

Kajan JohnsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Naoyuki Kotani · Sep 15

KOvs Adriano Martins · Sep 17

vs Stevie Ray · Mar 18

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jul 18

vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhang LipengMetricKajan Johnson

1.28

Strikes / min

2.47

1.88

Strikes absorbed / min

1.59

53%

Strike defense

64%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

1.54

69%

Takedown defense

62%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.60Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zhang LipengKajan Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zhang Lipeng(4 fights)Kajan Johnson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.9|Blue +12.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -218.0|Blue +218.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhang LipengTargetKajan Johnson

By target zone

19% acc · 30%

Head

28% acc · 50%

100% acc · 20%

Body

33% acc · 10%

83% acc · 50%

Leg

89% acc · 40%

By position

41% acc · 65%

Distance

24% acc · 40%

75% acc · 30%

Clinch

82% acc · 45%

14% acc · 5%

Ground

50% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zhang Lipeng rounds

even

Kajan Johnson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 2Kajan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:15

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 3Kajan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:55

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 47

Sig Strikes

20 / 51

42.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

51 / 81

Total Strikes

23 / 54

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 11

50%

TD %

24.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:32

Ctrl Time

6:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kajan Johnson	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 3	0
1	Zhang Lipeng	4 / 11	15 / 24	1 / 1	0
2	Kajan Johnson	9 / 28	9 / 28	1 / 3	0
2	Zhang Lipeng	7 / 20	15 / 29	0 / 0	0
3	Kajan Johnson	5 / 10	8 / 13	2 / 5	1
3	Zhang Lipeng	9 / 16	21 / 28	0 / 1	0

Zhang Lipeng

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Kajan Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights7