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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chris Wade won · Decision R3

Elo1355

Elo1491

Zhang LipengvsChris WadeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · Sunday, January 18, 2015Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Chris Wade won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Zhang Lipeng wins(77.5%)

Actual result: Chris Wade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Lipeng at +505 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Lipeng (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Zhang Lipeng

Red Corner

Chris Wade

Blue Corner

+505

(17%)

Vegas Odds

-605

(86%)

1355

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhang Lipeng

oldest →

DECvs Sai Wang · Mar 14

DECvs Brendan O'Reilly · Aug 14

DECvs Kajan Johnson · May 15

latest

Chris Wade

oldest →

vs Christos Giagos · Jun 15

SUBvs Mehdi Baghdad · Jan 16

vs Rustam Khabilov · May 16

vs Islam Makhachev · Sep 16

vs Frankie Perez · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhang LipengMetricChris Wade

1.28

Strikes / min

1.70

1.88

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

53%

Strike defense

51%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

2.60

69%

Takedown defense

55%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.60evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zhang LipengChris Wade

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zhang Lipeng(4 fights)Chris Wade(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.1|Blue +136.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhang LipengTargetChris Wade

By target zone

37% acc · 25%

Head

62% acc · 38%

64% acc · 25%

Body

64% acc · 15%

88% acc · 50%

Leg

88% acc · 47%

By position

40% acc · 29%

Distance

52% acc · 28%

76% acc · 68%

Clinch

86% acc · 53%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

82% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zhang Lipeng rounds

even

Chris Wade rounds

Round 1Chris Wade edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:53

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:13Control

Round 2Chris Wade edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:34

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:16Control

Round 3Chris Wade edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:18

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 46

Sig Strikes

47 / 65

60.7%

Sig Str %

76.7%

47 / 67

Total Strikes

133 / 163

0 / 7

TDs

4 / 9

TD %

44%

Sub Att

Rev

3:45

Ctrl Time

9:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Wade	16 / 17	41 / 42	1 / 3
1	Zhang Lipeng	16 / 22	27 / 33	0 / 3
2	Chris Wade	17 / 31	41 / 57	1 / 3
2	Zhang Lipeng	8 / 18	15 / 26	0 / 1
3	Chris Wade	14 / 17	51 / 64	2 / 3
3	Zhang Lipeng	4 / 6	5 / 8	0 / 3

Zhang Lipeng

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Chris Wade

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7