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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Zhang Lipeng won · Decision R3

Elo1355

Elo1359

Zhang LipengvsBrendan O'ReillyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le · Saturday, August 23, 2014Macau, China

Official fight result

Zhang Lipeng won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Zhang Lipeng wins(85.8%)

Actual result: Zhang Lipeng wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Lipeng at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zhang Lipeng has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Zhang Lipeng has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Lipeng (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Zhang Lipeng

Red Corner

Brendan O'Reilly

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1355

Elo

1359

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhang LipengL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Sai Wang · Mar 14

DECvs Chris Wade · Jan 15

DECvs Kajan Johnson · May 15

latest

Brendan O'ReillyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Vik Grujic · May 15

KOvs Alan Jouban · Mar 16

vs Dong Hyun Ma · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhang LipengMetricBrendan O'Reilly

1.28

Strikes / min

1.90

1.88

Strikes absorbed / min

2.77

53%

Strike defense

39%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

2.22

69%

Takedown defense

36%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.60evenly matched on net striking-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zhang LipengBrendan O'Reilly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zhang Lipeng(4 fights)Brendan O'Reilly(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.0|Blue +4.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhang LipengTargetBrendan O'Reilly

By target zone

28% acc · 37%

Head

20% acc · 47%

67% acc · 32%

Body

50% acc · 27%

100% acc · 32%

Leg

57% acc · 27%

By position

33% acc · 47%

Distance

29% acc · 80%

86% acc · 32%

Clinch

75% acc · 20%

67% acc · 21%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zhang Lipeng rounds

even

Brendan O'Reilly rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:36

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 2Zhang Lipeng edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control3:19

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Zhang Lipeng edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:08

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 40

Sig Strikes

15 / 50

55%

Sig Str %

29%

130 / 179

Total Strikes

74 / 121

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 3

66.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:03

Ctrl Time

3:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendan O'Reilly	4 / 17	25 / 41	0 / 2	0
1	Zhang Lipeng	4 / 5	34 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Brendan O'Reilly	3 / 15	21 / 33	0 / 1	0
2	Zhang Lipeng	9 / 18	38 / 52	1 / 3	1
3	Brendan O'Reilly	8 / 18	28 / 47	0 / 0	0
3	Zhang Lipeng	6 / 17	58 / 87	1 / 1	0

Zhang Lipeng

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Brendan O'Reilly

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4