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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joshua Van won · S-DEC R3

Elo1462

Elo1599

Zhalgas ZhumagulovvsJoshua VanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · Saturday, June 24, 2023Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Joshua Van won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupZhalgas Zhumagulov: Pressure fightervsJoshua Van: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Joshua Van wins(83.5%)

Actual result: Joshua Van wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Van at +168 American odds

+$168 profit

$268 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Zhalgas Zhumagulov (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Red Corner

Joshua Van

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+168

(37%)

1462

Elo

1599

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhalgas ZhumagulovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Amir Albazi · Jan 21

SUBvs Jerome Rivera · Jul 21

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 21

vs Jeff Molina · Jun 22

vs Charles Johnson · Nov 22

latest

Joshua VanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Rei Tsuruya · Mar 25

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 25

vs Brandon Royval · Jun 25

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhalgas ZhumagulovMetricJoshua Van

5.24

Strikes / min

8.43

5.86

Strikes absorbed / min

5.82

52%

Strike defense

58%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

0.82

75%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.62Δ 3.23 — meaningful gap+2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zhalgas ZhumagulovJoshua Van

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zhalgas Zhumagulov(6 fights)Joshua Van(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.3|Blue +137.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhalgas ZhumagulovTargetJoshua Van

By target zone

22% acc · 44%

Head

44% acc · 65%

58% acc · 27%

Body

71% acc · 24%

79% acc · 29%

Leg

93% acc · 11%

By position

101

36% acc · 98%

Distance

106

49% acc · 88%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

82% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov rounds

even

Joshua Van rounds

Round 1Zhalgas Zhumagulov edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control1:10

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

103 / 287

Sig Strikes

120 / 234

35.3%

Sig Str %

51.3%

104 / 291

Total Strikes

131 / 245

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

12.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joshua Van	25 / 48	36 / 59	0 / 0
1	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	26 / 77	27 / 81	1 / 4
2	Joshua Van	51 / 100	51 / 100	0 / 0
2	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	38 / 94	38 / 94	0 / 1
3	Joshua Van	44 / 86	44 / 86	0 / 2
3	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	39 / 116	39 / 116	0 / 0

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

StanceSwitch

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights6

Joshua Van

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights11