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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Zhalgas Zhumagulov won · SUB R1

Elo1462

Elo1403

Zhalgas ZhumagulovvsJerome RiveraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Saturday, July 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Zhalgas Zhumagulov won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:02

Style matchupZhalgas Zhumagulov: Pressure fightervsJerome Rivera: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Zhalgas Zhumagulov wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Zhalgas Zhumagulov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhalgas Zhumagulov at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov threatens submissions; Jerome Rivera has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Zhalgas Zhumagulov (54.1%).
Jerome Rivera has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Red Corner

Jerome Rivera

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1462

Elo

1403

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zhalgas ZhumagulovL5 streak

oldest →

vs Amir Albazi · Jan 21

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 21

vs Jeff Molina · Jun 22

vs Charles Johnson · Nov 22

vs Joshua Van · Jun 23

latest

Jerome RiveraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Nam · Sep 20

vs Francisco Figueiredo · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zhalgas ZhumagulovMetricJerome Rivera

5.24

Strikes / min

3.21

5.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.60

52%

Strike defense

51%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

40%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.62Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zhalgas ZhumagulovJerome Rivera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zhalgas Zhumagulov(6 fights)Jerome Rivera(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.7|Blue -58.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -3.0|Blue +3.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zhalgas ZhumagulovTargetJerome Rivera

By target zone

27% acc · 40%

Head

7% acc · 18%

67% acc · 40%

Body

70% acc · 64%

67% acc · 20%

Leg

67% acc · 18%

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

28% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov rounds

even

Jerome Rivera rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:12

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 24

Sig Strikes

11 / 40

41%

Sig Str %

27%

10 / 24

Total Strikes

11 / 40

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jerome Rivera	11 / 40	11 / 40	0 / 1	0
1	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	10 / 24	10 / 24	0 / 0	1

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

StanceSwitch

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights6

Jerome Rivera

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3