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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Zak Cummings won · SUB R1

Elo1499

Elo1491

Zak CummingsvsNathan CoyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Zak Cummings won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:21

Style matchupZak Cummings: Well-roundedvsNathan Coy: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Zak Cummings wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Zak Cummings wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zak Cummings at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zak Cummings threatens submissions; Nathan Coy has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Zak Cummings has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Zak Cummings has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Zak Cummings

Red Corner

Nathan Coy

Blue Corner

-550

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1499

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zak CummingsW2 streak

oldest →

vs Trevor Smith · Dec 18

SUBvs Trevin Giles · May 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Sep 19

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 20

KOvs Ed Herman · Apr 23

latest

Nathan Coy

oldest →

SUBvs Danny Roberts · Dec 15

vs Jonavin Webb · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zak CummingsMetricNathan Coy

2.96

Strikes / min

3.88

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.40

55%

Strike defense

61%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

3.17

66%

Takedown defense

50%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.05Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zak CummingsNathan Coy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zak Cummings(10 fights)Nathan Coy(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.5|Blue -8.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -272.0|Blue +272.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zak CummingsTargetNathan Coy

By target zone

30% acc · 80%

Head

45% acc · 57%

67% acc · 8%

Body

88% acc · 30%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

75% acc · 13%

By position

31% acc · 84%

Distance

55% acc · 96%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zak Cummings rounds

even

Nathan Coy rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:11

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 72

Sig Strikes

23 / 41

34%

Sig Str %

56%

25 / 72

Total Strikes

23 / 41

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nathan Coy	23 / 41	23 / 41	1 / 1	0
1	Zak Cummings	25 / 72	25 / 72	0 / 0	2

Zak Cummings

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Nathan Coy

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3