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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michel Prazeres won · S-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1403

Zak CummingsvsMichel PrazeresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · Saturday, May 19, 2018Santiago, Chile

Official fight result

Michel Prazeres won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupZak Cummings: Well-roundedvsMichel Prazeres: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Michel Prazeres wins(83.8%)

Actual result: Michel Prazeres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Prazeres at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zak Cummings has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Zak Cummings (53.5%).
Zak Cummings has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Zak Cummings

Red Corner

Michel Prazeres

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1499

Elo

1403

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'6"

190.5 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zak CummingsW2 streak

oldest →

vs Trevor Smith · Dec 18

SUBvs Trevin Giles · May 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Sep 19

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 20

KOvs Ed Herman · Apr 23

latest

Michel PrazeresL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mads Burnell · Sep 17

vs Desmond Green · Feb 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zak CummingsMetricMichel Prazeres

2.96

Strikes / min

2.38

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

55%

Strike defense

57%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

3.94

66%

Takedown defense

47%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.05evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zak CummingsMichel Prazeres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zak Cummings(10 fights)Michel Prazeres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +96.1|Blue -96.1

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +294.0|Blue -294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zak CummingsTargetMichel Prazeres

By target zone

19% acc · 43%

Head

34% acc · 67%

52% acc · 39%

Body

57% acc · 13%

71% acc · 18%

Leg

60% acc · 20%

By position

20% acc · 54%

Distance

40% acc · 97%

72% acc · 46%

Clinch

25% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zak Cummings rounds

even

Michel Prazeres rounds

Round 1Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:51

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:22

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 92

Sig Strikes

30 / 76

29%

Sig Str %

39.7%

62 / 128

Total Strikes

32 / 78

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 9

—

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

2:13

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michel Prazeres	11 / 21	12 / 22	1 / 2
1	Zak Cummings	6 / 24	15 / 33	0 / 0
2	Michel Prazeres	8 / 26	9 / 27	1 / 2
2	Zak Cummings	7 / 28	23 / 45	0 / 0
3	Michel Prazeres	11 / 29	11 / 29	1 / 5
3	Zak Cummings	15 / 40	24 / 50	0 / 0

Zak Cummings

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14