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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Zak Cummings won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1499

Elo1458

Zak CummingsvsEd HermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Zak Cummings won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:13

Style matchupZak Cummings: Well-roundedvsEd Herman: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Ed Herman wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Zak Cummings wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ed Herman at +184 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zak Cummings has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Zak Cummings (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Zak Cummings

Red Corner

Ed Herman

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+184

(35%)

1499

Elo

1458

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zak Cummings

oldest →

vs Michel Prazeres · May 18

vs Trevor Smith · Dec 18

SUBvs Trevin Giles · May 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Sep 19

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 20

latest

Ed Herman

oldest →

vs Gian Villante · Oct 18

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zak CummingsMetricEd Herman

2.96

Strikes / min

3.31

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

55%

Strike defense

42%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

1.96

66%

Takedown defense

59%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.05evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zak CummingsEd Herman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zak Cummings(10 fights)Ed Herman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +41.4|Blue -41.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +343.0|Blue -343.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zak CummingsTargetEd Herman

By target zone

50% acc · 69%

Head

37% acc · 63%

79% acc · 15%

Body

56% acc · 9%

94% acc · 16%

Leg

94% acc · 28%

By position

54% acc · 83%

Distance

43% acc · 85%

60% acc · 3%

Clinch

57% acc · 7%

88% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zak Cummings rounds

even

Ed Herman rounds

Round 1Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:39

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:51

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:48

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 175

Sig Strikes

54 / 117

57.3%

Sig Str %

46%

114 / 189

Total Strikes

71 / 141

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:18

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ed Herman	23 / 36	27 / 40	0 / 1
1	Zak Cummings	39 / 72	40 / 73	0 / 0
2	Ed Herman	17 / 42	25 / 51	0 / 0
2	Zak Cummings	26 / 50	39 / 63	0 / 0
3	Ed Herman	14 / 39	19 / 50	0 / 0
3	Zak Cummings	35 / 53	35 / 53	0 / 0

Zak Cummings

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16