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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Zak Cummings won · SUB R2

Elo1499

Elo1391

Zak CummingsvsAlexander YakovlevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Zak Cummings won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:02

Model Prediction: Zak Cummings wins(69.9%)

Actual result: Zak Cummings wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zak Cummings at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zak Cummings threatens submissions; Alexander Yakovlev has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Zak Cummings

Red Corner

Alexander Yakovlev

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1499

Elo

1391

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zak CummingsW2 streak

oldest →

vs Trevor Smith · Dec 18

SUBvs Trevin Giles · May 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Sep 19

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 20

KOvs Ed Herman · Apr 23

latest

Alexander YakovlevL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs George Sullivan · Jan 16

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 16

SUBvs Alex Da Silva · Apr 19

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 19

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zak CummingsMetricAlexander Yakovlev

2.96

Strikes / min

1.74

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

1.66

66%

Takedown defense

72%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.05evenly matched on net striking-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zak CummingsAlexander Yakovlev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zak Cummings(10 fights)Alexander Yakovlev(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +108.7|Blue -108.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zak CummingsTargetAlexander Yakovlev

By target zone

21% acc · 58%

Head

33% acc · 50%

50% acc · 13%

Body

67% acc · 22%

100% acc · 29%

Leg

63% acc · 28%

By position

30% acc · 92%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

40% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zak Cummings rounds

even

Alexander Yakovlev rounds

Round 1Alexander Yakovlev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:38

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:32

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 80

Sig Strikes

18 / 41

29.5%

Sig Str %

43%

38 / 94

Total Strikes

18 / 41

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Yakovlev	12 / 26	12 / 26	1 / 1	0
1	Zak Cummings	10 / 34	21 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Alexander Yakovlev	6 / 15	6 / 15	0 / 1	0
2	Zak Cummings	14 / 46	17 / 49	0 / 0	1

Zak Cummings

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Alexander Yakovlev

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9