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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Michel Pereira won · S-DEC R3

Elo1475

Elo1492

Zach ReesevsMichel PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Michel Pereira won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupZach Reese: WrestlervsMichel Pereira: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Michel Pereira wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Michel Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Pereira at -168 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michel Pereira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Michel Pereira has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Zach Reese (52.9%).
Zach Reese has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Zach Reese

Red Corner

Michel Pereira

Blue Corner

+142

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-168

(63%)

1475

Elo

1492

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zach Reese

oldest →

KOvs Azamat Bekoev · Jan 25

vs Dusko Todorovic · May 25

vs Sedriques Dumas · Sep 25

SUBvs Jackson McVey · Nov 25

KOvs Ryan Gandra · Jul 26

latest

Michel PereiraL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ihor Potieria · May 24

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25

DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zach ReeseMetricMichel Pereira

4.48

Strikes / min

4.46

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

43%

Strike defense

51%

2.80

TDs / 15 min

1.21

52%

Takedown defense

75%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zach ReeseMichel Pereira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zach Reese(5 fights)Michel Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.1|Blue +17.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zach ReeseTargetMichel Pereira

By target zone

27% acc · 32%

Head

39% acc · 46%

79% acc · 41%

Body

58% acc · 49%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

75% acc · 5%

By position

51% acc · 97%

Distance

45% acc · 84%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

82% acc · 14%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zach Reese rounds

even

Michel Pereira rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Zach Reese edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:44

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:03

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 148

Sig Strikes

63 / 132

49.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

81 / 160

Total Strikes

70 / 139

1 / 3

TDs

2 / 2

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michel Pereira	18 / 40	25 / 47	1 / 1	0
1	Zach Reese	23 / 51	26 / 56	0 / 0	0
2	Michel Pereira	22 / 42	22 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Zach Reese	24 / 44	28 / 49	1 / 1	0
3	Michel Pereira	23 / 50	23 / 50	1 / 1	0
3	Zach Reese	27 / 53	27 / 55	0 / 2	1

Zach Reese

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16