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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Zach Reese won · SUB R2

Elo1475

Elo1496

Zach ReesevsJackson McVeyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Saturday, November 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Zach Reese won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:38

Model Prediction: Zach Reese wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Zach Reese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zach Reese at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zach Reese enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Zach Reese threatens submissions; Jackson McVey has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Zach Reese has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Zach Reese has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Zach Reese (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Zach Reese

Red Corner

Jackson McVey

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1475

Elo

1496

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zach ReeseL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Azamat Bekoev · Jan 25

vs Dusko Todorovic · May 25

vs Sedriques Dumas · Sep 25

vs Michel Pereira · Feb 26

KOvs Ryan Gandra · Jul 26

latest

Jackson McVey

oldest →

SUBvs Brunno Ferreira · Jul 25

SUBvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zach ReeseMetricJackson McVey

4.48

Strikes / min

6.51

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.37

43%

Strike defense

23%

2.80

TDs / 15 min

0.00

52%

Takedown defense

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap+3.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zach ReeseJackson McVey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zach Reese(5 fights)Jackson McVey(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.2|Blue +21.2

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zach ReeseTargetJackson McVey

By target zone

68% acc · 66%

Head

72% acc · 50%

100% acc · 16%

Body

82% acc · 48%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

79% acc · 47%

Distance

47% acc · 16%

76% acc · 50%

Clinch

87% acc · 84%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zach Reese rounds

even

Jackson McVey rounds

Round 1Jackson McVey edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control0:58

53Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:23Control

Round 2Zach Reese edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns2

Control1:26

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 42

Sig Strikes

56 / 73

63.5%

Sig Str %

64.5%

81 / 97

Total Strikes

68 / 86

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:24

Ctrl Time

2:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jackson McVey	53 / 67	65 / 79	0 / 0	0
1	Zach Reese	31 / 40	61 / 74	1 / 1	0
2	Jackson McVey	3 / 6	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
2	Zach Reese	1 / 2	20 / 23	2 / 2	1

Zach Reese

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6

Jackson McVey

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4