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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Azamat Bekoev won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1475
Zach Reese editorial illustration
Elo1487
Azamat Bekoev

Zach ReesevsAzamat BekoevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Azamat Bekoev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:04

Style matchupZach Reese: WrestlervsAzamat Bekoev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Zach Reese wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Azamat Bekoev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zach Reese at -275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Azamat Bekoev is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Zach Reese has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Zach Reese threatens submissions; Azamat Bekoev has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Zach Reese has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Zach Reese (52.9%).
  • Zach Reese has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Zach Reese
Red Corner
VS
Azamat Bekoev
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
-184
(65%)
1475
Elo
1487
32
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zach ReeseL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Dusko Todorovic · May 25
L
vs Sedriques Dumas · Sep 25
W
SUBvs Jackson McVey · Nov 25
L
vs Michel Pereira · Feb 26
L
KOvs Ryan Gandra · Jul 26
latest
Azamat BekoevL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Ryan Loder · May 25
L
KOvs Yousri Belgaroui · Oct 25
L
SUBvs Tresean Gore · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zach ReeseMetricAzamat Bekoev
4.48
Strikes / min
4.57
3.92
Strikes absorbed / min
6.83
43%
Strike defense
31%
2.80
TDs / 15 min
3.48
52%
Takedown defense
62%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap-2.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes4.5 vs 4.1Takedowns2.8 vs 4.5Sub Atts1.30 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Zach ReeseAzamat Bekoev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601480150015201540← oldermost recent →
Zach Reese(5 fights)Azamat Bekoev(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -12.1|Blue +12.1
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zach ReeseTargetAzamat Bekoev

By target zone

13
59% acc · 100%
Head
16
84% acc · 76%
0
0% acc
Body
3
75% acc · 14%
0
Leg
2
67% acc · 10%

By position

1
14% acc · 8%
Distance
3
50% acc · 14%
1
100% acc · 8%
Clinch
0
11
69% acc · 85%
Ground
18
90% acc · 86%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Zach Reese rounds
0
even
1
Azamat Bekoev rounds
Round 1Azamat Bekoev edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:14Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
13 / 24
Sig Strikes
21 / 26
54%
Sig Str %
80%
22 / 35
Total Strikes
52 / 59
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:14

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Azamat Bekoev21 / 2652 / 591 / 20
1Zach Reese13 / 2422 / 350 / 00

Zach Reese

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights6

Azamat Bekoev

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4