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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Ortiz won · S-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1491

Zach MakovskyvsDustin OrtizUFC Prediction Result

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Saturday, December 10, 2016Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Dustin Ortiz won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupZach Makovsky: WrestlervsDustin Ortiz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Zach Makovsky wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Dustin Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zach Makovsky at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Zach Makovsky (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Zach Makovsky

Red Corner

Dustin Ortiz

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1359

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zach MakovskyL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joshua Sampo · Feb 14

vs Jussier Formiga · Aug 14

vs Tim Elliott · Feb 15

vs John Dodson · May 15

vs Joseph Benavidez · Feb 16

latest

Dustin Ortiz

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17

KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zach MakovskyMetricDustin Ortiz

1.94

Strikes / min

2.94

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

62%

Strike defense

56%

3.71

TDs / 15 min

3.01

56%

Takedown defense

52%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zach MakovskyDustin Ortiz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zach Makovsky(7 fights)Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -132.8|Blue +132.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +231.0|Blue -231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zach MakovskyTargetDustin Ortiz

By target zone

25% acc · 33%

Head

43% acc · 53%

93% acc · 62%

Body

67% acc · 35%

50% acc · 5%

Leg

80% acc · 12%

By position

30% acc · 43%

Distance

31% acc · 29%

85% acc · 52%

Clinch

65% acc · 32%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

81% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zach Makovsky rounds

even

Dustin Ortiz rounds

Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:30

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:49Control

Round 2Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:07

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:25Control

Round 3Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control1:30

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 44

Sig Strikes

34 / 65

49%

Sig Str %

52%

29 / 52

Total Strikes

109 / 146

4 / 10

TDs

4 / 9

44.3%

TD %

44%

Sub Att

Rev

2:07

Ctrl Time

8:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Ortiz	10 / 20	35 / 45	1 / 3	0
1	Zach Makovsky	11 / 20	15 / 24	1 / 2	0
2	Dustin Ortiz	11 / 24	53 / 72	2 / 3	0
2	Zach Makovsky	4 / 15	5 / 16	1 / 2	1
3	Dustin Ortiz	13 / 21	21 / 29	1 / 3	0
3	Zach Makovsky	6 / 9	9 / 12	2 / 6	0

Zach Makovsky

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14