Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Modestas Bukauskas won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1538

Zac PaugavsModestas BukauskasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Saturday, June 17, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Modestas Bukauskas won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupZac Pauga: Elusive strikervsModestas Bukauskas: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Zac Pauga wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Modestas Bukauskas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zac Pauga at +166 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zac Pauga has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Zac Pauga

Red Corner

Modestas Bukauskas

Blue Corner

+166

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-198

(66%)

1492

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'2"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zac Pauga

oldest →

KOvs Mohammed Usman · Aug 22

vs Jordan Wright · Feb 23

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Feb 24

latest

Modestas Bukauskas

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25

vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25

KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26

DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zac PaugaMetricModestas Bukauskas

4.46

Strikes / min

3.24

2.73

Strikes absorbed / min

4.05

58%

Strike defense

50%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

0.26

100%

Takedown defense

79%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.73Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zac PaugaModestas Bukauskas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zac Pauga(4 fights)Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -46.1|Blue +46.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zac PaugaTargetModestas Bukauskas

By target zone

44% acc · 52%

Head

44% acc · 75%

83% acc · 37%

Body

83% acc · 18%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

55% acc · 87%

Distance

49% acc · 89%

70% acc · 10%

Clinch

56% acc · 9%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zac Pauga rounds

even

Modestas Bukauskas rounds

Round 1Zac Pauga edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:04

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Zac Pauga edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:10

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Zac Pauga edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:03

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 117

Sig Strikes

56 / 112

56.3%

Sig Str %

49%

72 / 123

Total Strikes

62 / 120

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:17

Ctrl Time

1:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Modestas Bukauskas	13 / 29	14 / 31	0 / 0
1	Zac Pauga	15 / 29	20 / 35	1 / 3
2	Modestas Bukauskas	23 / 40	23 / 40	0 / 0
2	Zac Pauga	27 / 48	27 / 48	0 / 1
3	Modestas Bukauskas	20 / 43	25 / 49	0 / 0
3	Zac Pauga	25 / 40	25 / 40	0 / 1

Zac Pauga

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12