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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Bogdan Guskov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1492

Elo1522

Zac PaugavsBogdan GuskovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Saturday, February 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bogdan Guskov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:38

Style matchupZac Pauga: Elusive strikervsBogdan Guskov: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Zac Pauga wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Bogdan Guskov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bogdan Guskov is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Zac Pauga has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Zac Pauga has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Zac Pauga has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Zac Pauga

Red Corner

Bogdan Guskov

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1492

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zac Pauga

oldest →

KOvs Mohammed Usman · Aug 22

vs Jordan Wright · Feb 23

vs Modestas Bukauskas · Jun 23

latest

Bogdan Guskov

oldest →

KOvs Ryan Spann · Apr 24

SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 25

vs Jan Blachowicz · Dec 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zac PaugaMetricBogdan Guskov

4.46

Strikes / min

4.57

2.73

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

58%

Strike defense

44%

0.38

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.73Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zac PaugaBogdan Guskov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zac Pauga(4 fights)Bogdan Guskov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.1|Blue +30.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zac PaugaTargetBogdan Guskov

By target zone

54% acc · 41%

Head

34% acc · 100%

40% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 47%

Leg

By position

64% acc · 82%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

75% acc · 18%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zac Pauga rounds

even

Bogdan Guskov rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:04

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 26

Sig Strikes

10 / 29

65%

Sig Str %

34%

19 / 28

Total Strikes

25 / 44

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:04

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bogdan Guskov	10 / 29	25 / 44	0 / 0	0
1	Zac Pauga	17 / 26	19 / 28	0 / 2	0

Zac Pauga

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4

Bogdan Guskov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8